FOMC 성명서 전문과 버냉키 기자회견 [원문요약] 그리고 증시투자전략

FOMC 성명서 전문

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.  Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.  However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.  Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March.  Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.  The unemployment rate remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate.  Increases in the prices of energy and other commodities have pushed up inflation in recent months.  The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.  The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.  In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter.  The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

[요약] 기존 국채매입 계획 수정없이 진행 / 물가 안정 < 완전고용/ 물가상승 압력은 일시적인 현상 / 목표금리 연0~0.25%로 유지 /

미국증시

S&P500 일봉 지수입니다.

어제의 빅 이벤트, 금리동결로 저항대 돌파 후 상승마감 했으며 역헤드엔숄드가 발생되었습니다. 미국은 인플레이션 압박이 심하지 않다고 하지만 중국입장에선 당황스러울 듯 보여지는군요. 여하튼 금리인상을 잠시 미뤘을 뿐 올릴 수 밖에 없는 여건으로 보며 유럽연합까지 금리인상 한 마당에 너무 질질끄는 듯 보이는군요. 에너지와 원자재 지수를 지속 관심을 두어야 할 듯 보입니다.

나스닥 일봉 지수입니다.

S&P500과 같은 흐름이지만 저항선 돌파를 확인 하려면 몇 일은 더 지켜봐야 할 듯 보이는군요. 현재 2007년 고점인 2861.51p를 살짝 돌파된 상태이며 안착할지 관심입니다.

 

한국증시

 

투자자별 매매동향입니다.

몇 일전에 하방에 포지션을 구축한 선물 투자자들이 상승을 못 견디고 청산처리 되었습니다. 외국인 홀로 옵션포지션에서 하방, 개인과 증권은 상방포지션이군요. 증권의 포지션 변동에 관심을 둡니다.

 

코스피 일봉 지수입니다.

결론부터 말씀 드리자면 일시적 전고점 돌파는 열어두나 현재포지션으론 시간가치를 죽이기 위해 위의 박스권 안에서 지수가 움직일 가능성이 커 보입니다. 한국증시는 미국증시 보다 먼저 2007년 고점을 약6%정도 돌파한 상태입니다. 물론 장기적 관점에서 상승할 가능성이 크지만 메이져의 파생상품 포지션 변동이 없는 한 상승을 방어할 듯 보여집니다.
단기적 관점으로는 매수유보 또는 헤지 와 동반매수, 장기적 관점으로는 적극매수입니다.

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